Super Rugby Round 3 – Saturday Matches and Friday Review

Well last night went really well with two successful results. The Chiefs held on against the Crusaders in a very tight match. At 21-19, I felt the Crusaders would come through as they always seem to, but credit to the Chiefs who played well. I’m not sure if the Chiefs are going to be a force this year, but it looks promising for them. Richard Kahui and Liam Messam were big standouts, on defense in particular. The Crusaders now have lost 2 games in a row, which doesn’t happen often. I still think they will come good, especially when Dan Carter returns.

Onto the Force v Hurricanes game and it was a really strange game. The Force dominated territory and possesion and yet conceded 6 tries and lost 46-19. It is really worrying for them because they were just torn apart at times and conceded really easily. As I said yesterday, it is going to be a long season for them. So overall a great night, betting wise, with a 3.5 point profit.

Looking at the Saturday games, nothing too much stands out. I think the Brumbies will be too good for the Cheetahs and I’m sure the Reds will dish out some pain to the Rebels. The only hope there is for Beale and O’Connor to weave their magic. Even with those 2, it might end up being a long night. The Bulls should also be able to see off the Blues, who are without a few key players.

There are 2 games that I will be looking at:

Highlanders v Waratahs

The Highlanders are the only unbeaten New Zealand team after beating the Chiefs and the Crusaders in the opening 2 games. They will go into this games with huge confidence and momentum but they face a Waratahs team who I feel will go a long way this season. They smashed the Rebels last week and really should have beaten the Reds in round 1. They were in the lead and had the ball with about 30 seconds left. Rather than wind the clock down, they chose to kick the ball away and watch as the Reds went 70 metres to score a try. With that being said though, there is a lot to like about this team. Backing them at 2.5 here is the way to go. It will be close, but I think the Waratahs should be odds on favourites.

Sharks v Lions

The Lions can be backed at 5.2 here which to me is a no-brainer. Now don’t get me wrong, the Sharks should win. They just are not that big of a favourite, in my opinion. The Lions don’t have a great record against the Sharks, but the last time they played it was a 30-30 draw and the Lions beat the Sharks in the Currie Cup final last year. Given this, and the Sharks poor start to the year, 5.2 is a steal. If you want a safer bet, the Lions +11.5 can also be backed at 2.08. I hope I don’t have egg on my face tomorrow, but I do feel at worst, it will be a close fought win for the Sharks.

Enjoy the games and just for the record, I am no expert and these opinions are just that, opinions.

Super Rugby Round 3 – Crusaders v Chiefs and Force v Hurricanes

Crusaders v Chiefs

This one will be interesting. Given last weeks results it is surprising to see the Crusaders such huge favourites at 1.49. They were outrun last week against the Highlanders and the Chiefs comprehensively beat the Blues. Looking at it in more depth though, the Blues gave away some really soft tries and those turned out to be the difference between the teams.

The Crusaders have a really good record overall against the Chiefs, winning the last 4 meetings. This one is a home game for the Crusaders but it is in Napier, which is more a neutral venue. The last time they played there last year it was 25-19 to the Crusaders.

It is tough one to call early in the season. The Crusaders are always going to be there or there abouts but it is too early to know what the Chiefs will do. I do think the Crusaders will edge it but given the price there is definately value backing the Chiefs (3.25).

Force v Hurricanes

This season is going to be a long one for the Force, I think. They are just about odds on against the Hurricanes, who come back from South Africa with 2 pretty decent results. They hung in there with the superior Stormers and just beat the Lions. The Force have a decent back row, but beyond that I don’t see a huge amount of talent. They will always pose a challenge at home but I don’t see them dominating teams or dictating games. James O’Connor is a huge miss in that regard.

These 2 teams have a history of close games and the Hurricanes have won the last 4 meetings. I think this one will be close but only due to home advantage to the Force and fatigue catching up to the Hurricanes.

Backing the Hurricanes at above evens is value to me in this game.For me they must be favourites. I backed them at 2.12.

Enjoy the games and I will be back tomorrow with the rest

Arsenal Come So Close Against Milan

Well what a game that was. This Arsenal team can really be amazing one moment and hopeless the next. Three goals in the first half. In the second though, they couldn’t keep it going and tired and I thought Milan were really calm and showed their experience. Arsenal barely had any possession in the last 15 minutes, or it didn’t seem they did anyway. There was one great chance for Van Persie in the second half, but the keeper reacted really well to his lob, after already, quite brilliantly, saving Gervihno’s deflected effort. Van Persie tried the little dink but probably should have just put his laces through it. I suppose after the season he is having, he is allowed some leeway.

On the betting front, I was informed of the odds for the game yesterday after reading the blog, Betfair Football Trading, the highs and lows! (Blog very much recommended for sports betting and trading, very insightful). I got on Arsenal to qualify for $20 at odds of 28, which was slightly better than the lay of Milan at the time of 1.04.

So I had just a $20 liability for a $540 green on Arsenal. After they scored their second I got rid of all my liability and at half time I left $200 on Arsenal with a $65 green on Milan. This one was really hard to manage in-play. There were decisions to be made every time Arsenal scored and the whole time I was torn as to what to do. I think in this case caution was probably the best way to go because one goal from Milan at any time would have killed the tie for sure. They did bottle two really good chances too.

That is it for my first (proper) post. I hope to be posting more in the next few days, specifically on Super Rugby, where I feel there is a lot of value to be had.

Welcome

This site is going to be a platform for me to express my views and ideas about sport and sports betting. I am by no means an expert on either, just a fan and a punter. Feel free to comment or get involved.